Methodological Mistakes and Econometric Consequences

Authors : Asad Zaman

Pages : 99-122

View : 15 | Download : 8

Publication Date : 2012-12-01

Article Type : Other

Abstract :Econometric Methodology is based on logical positivist principles. Since logical positivism has collapsed, it is necessary to re-think these foundations. We show that positivist methodology has led econometricians to a meaningless search for patterns in the data. An alternative methodology which relates observed patterns to real causal structures is proposed.
Keywords : Econometric Methodology, logical positivism, realism, causality, VAR models, Forecasting, surprise, goodness of fit.