Current Account Defıcıt Analysıs Usıng The Structural Break Method In Turkey In The Perıod Of 1984- 2021

Authors : Hüseyin Karahan, Cemal Erdem Hepaktan

Pages : 60-80

Doi:10.35342/econder.1387133

View : 33 | Download : 42

Publication Date : 2024-06-30

Article Type : Research

Abstract :In the study, it was examined whether there was a structural break in exports and imports along with the current deficit. The main purpose of this study is to analyze whether there is a structural break in Turkey’s current account deficit, exports and imports. The originality of this study is to determine whether exports and imports have an effect on the structural break that may occur in the current deficit. Annual data on the Central Bank of Turkey(CBRT) website for the period 1984 – 2021 are used. In addition, there is stationary in the first difference values of the variables in the structural break unit root test(URT). According to the results of the CUSUM Squares Test, it was revealed that there was a structural break in the current deficit, exports and imports in the 2017 – 2019 period. While Cointegration Test and Causality Test were performed in the study, it was determined that there was a one – way causality relationship between the variables. According to the results of Gregory Hansen Cointegration Test, in case of structural break, there is a long – term relationship between the variables.
Keywords : Cari Açik, Zaman Serisi Modeli, Uluslararasi Ticaret, Türkiye Ekonomisi