Statistical Analysis of Covid-19 Outbreak with Benford’s Law

Authors : Ali Hasan Doğan, Cemali Altuntaş, Caneren Gül, Nursu Tunalioğlu, Bahattin Erdoğan

Pages : 120-133

Doi:10.11611/yead.1078847

View : 124 | Download : 128

Publication Date : 2023-07-11

Article Type : Research

Abstract :The coronavirus disease first identified in mid-December 2019 in Wuhan, China is an ongoing pandemic and the virus has spread around the world. As of 13 March 2020, the number of new cases started to increase significantly in Europe, and Europe was considered as the new center of the Covid-19 pandemic as announced by the WHO. Confirmed case rate (CCR), computed from the numbers of confirmed cases over numbers of tests of the countries can be used to confirm the quality of the numbers, and to detect the manipulation for health surveillance systems of the countries for managing the situation by testing whether or not follow Benford’s Law (BL). The main aim of this study is to test CCRs of the countries in Europe by BL to detect the data qualities and to monitor the manipulations, which can help to take precautions for the health surveillance systems of the countries.
Keywords : Outbreak, Covid-19, Benford\'s Law, Chi-Squared Test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test