Modeling of Stochastic Process of Implementation of Various Combinations of Dangerous Meteorological Phenomena in the Mountains of the Caucasus

Authors : Mariam Elizbarashvili, Elizbar Elizbarashvili

Pages : 1-7

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Publication Date : 2019-12-27

Article Type : Research

Abstract :The mountainous regions of Caucasus are characterized by the exceptional variety of dangerous meteorological phenomena that often cause significant material damage and human losses. These dangerous meteorological phenomena often occur simultaneously and exacerbate the situation. For example, increased wind during heavy rains, fog during snowstorms, hurricanes with hail, etc. To reduce the negative effects of such phenomena, it is necessary to know their probabilistic characteristics in given area. These meteorological phenomena are independent of each other, therefore the physical process of their occurrence has stochastic nature and it can be investigated as a random process based on the well-known probability theorems of multiplication and addition. Using these theorems, the stochastic process of realizing various combinations of dangerous meteorological phenomena in the Caucasus Mountains is modeled. For the Caucasus Mountains, the most likely is the implementation of snowstorm, hurricane wind or hail in combination with dangerous fog. The occurrence probabilities of one of the complex events, probability of the joint implementation of complex of both events and the periods of risk recurrence are identified.
Keywords : Meteorological Phenomena, Mountains of the Caucasus