PREDICTING THE TREND AND SEASONAL FACTORS OF TOTAL SUSPENDED PARTICLES TSP LEVELS IN TRABZON: SEASONAL AND WEIGHTED LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION

Authors : Ali Sait Albayrak

Pages : 73-88

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Publication Date : 2008-12-01

Article Type : Other

Abstract :In winter season the air pollution is the one of the most important environmental problems in Trabzon, located in Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. The humid climate as well as the densely populated urbanization cause serious problems for a long time period. One of the main targets of air quality management is to estimate the influence of different factors such as trend and seasonality upon air quality levels in a given area. In this paper, an attempt has been made to identify and estimate the trend and seasonal factors in TSP in Trabzon using accurate and reliable techniques.The data used in this study is concerned with monthly measurement levels of TSP taken from January 1996 through May 2007. The most accurate WLS regression results show that the adjusted–R2 is about 83,8% and the monthly averages of TSP do not have a clear trend over the period 1996–2007, the trend estimate is only about 0,08 points per year, which has a statistical significant of 0,681.
Keywords : Asılı Partiküller, Hava Kalitesi, Ağırlıklı Regresyon, Bileşenlere Ayırma