- Karamanoğlu Mehmetbey Üniversitesi Sosyal Ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi
- Cilt: 25 Sayı: 45
- The Transition of Fertility Rates in the World: Regime Switching Model
The Transition of Fertility Rates in the World: Regime Switching Model
Authors : Seda Ertürk, Selçuk Koç
Pages : 1324-1335
View : 16 | Download : 40
Publication Date : 2023-12-29
Article Type : Research
Abstract :In this study, the fertility rates in the world from 1960 to 2021 were analyzed the Switching Regime Model. The reason for modelling with regime switching models is the fact that the fertility rate data in the world experience rigid changes from time to time and the concern that the studies conducted in the literature without considering the regime change give erroneous results because they are not modelled correctly. In this context, fertility rates were modelled as single, double and triple regimes and it was concluded that the most accurate modelling was the triple regime modelling in the period examined. In modelling studies, studies conducted without considering nonlinearity tests (assuming a single regime) give erroneous results. The most obvious one of the rigid changes in fertility rates is 1993. While the world experienced all three regimes until 1993, the low fertility regime was adopted after 1993. The low fertility regime has led to population ageing with increasing life expectancy and thus to changes in many economic variables.Keywords : Demografik Dönüşüm, Doğurganlık Oranı, Rejim Değişim Modeli