- İstatistik Araştırma Dergisi
- Vol: 13 Issue: 1
- Econometric Studies on Wheat Production and Wheat Market of Türkiye
Econometric Studies on Wheat Production and Wheat Market of Türkiye
Authors : Cemil Iskender
Pages : 1-33
View : 316 | Download : 122
Publication Date : 2023-07-26
Article Type : Research Article
Abstract :In our study, we make economic analysis of wheat production and of the amounts traded together with the prices in Türkiye in an advanced econometrics and statistical framework. For this purpose, we create a data set of more than one hundred and ten years period using TurkStat data sources and explain the time trend of wheat production with the growth function. In the market research section, the relationships between supply, demand and prices are discussed and the time equilibrium paths of prices and quantities are determined with forty-year data and cobweb theorems. We then investigate the central points of price and quantity. To this end, we use the simple cobweb theorem with a single delay and Goodwin\'s theory that includes two delays and expectations. After determination of trend functions, cyclical fluctuations around the trend are determined with complementary functions. All functions have been solved simultaneously in computer enviroment. The results obtained with wheat data confirm the economic patterns of production and the market. Then, according to the equations obtained in the Goodwin model, we create the cobweb curve by simulating quantities and prices. We used econometrics and statistics procedures of SAS library for study.Keywords : Örümcek ağı teoremi, Türkiye buğday üretimi, Goodwin, Ekonometri.