- İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi
- Cilt: 22 Sayı: 44
- A COMPARISON OF STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS FOR THE CRUDE BIRTH RATE DATA
A COMPARISON OF STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS FOR THE CRUDE BIRTH RATE DATA
Authors : Ceren Ünal, Gamze Özel
Pages : 281-291
Doi:10.55071/ticaretfbd.1277633
View : 45 | Download : 59
Publication Date : 2023-12-31
Article Type : Research
Abstract :Population statistics and demographic are important indicators to show the country\'s quality of life, social and health, the status of the population, the change in the population structure, and its effect on economic life. In demography, the crude birth rate is used to measure the growth of a population. In this study, we perform the crude birth rate values by statistical regions in Türkiye with some statistical distributions. When the results are compared, the Gumbel distribution provides the best fit to model the crude birth rate values than Normal, Log-Normal, Exponential, Gamma, and Weibull distributions. Among compared distributions, the Gumbel model is the best model to present the CBR data since log likelihood (logL), Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) values of the Gumbel distribution are the lowest among all models. In addition, the results with the compared distributions are supported by graphs.Keywords : Kaba doğum hızı, uç değer dağılımları, Gumbel dağılımı, Nüfus tahminleri, Türkiye nüfusu