- İstanbul İktisat Dergisi
- Vol: 73 Issue: 1
- The Economic Impact of the Paris Agreement on Sectoral Outputs in Türkiye: An Input-Output Approach
The Economic Impact of the Paris Agreement on Sectoral Outputs in Türkiye: An Input-Output Approach
Authors : Mustafa Boran, Bekir Kayacan
Pages : 419-452
Doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1211511
View : 49 | Download : 46
Publication Date : 2023-06-26
Article Type : Research Article
Abstract :This study analyzes the economic impact of the Paris Agreement on sectoral outputs in Türkiye. All member countries are required to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by the Agreement according to their responsibilities and capabilities. In this regard, developed countries are subject to absolute emission reduction. Türkiye ratified the Agreement in 2021 as a developing country and started implementation in 2022 as stated in the Nationally Determined Contributions. Regarding implementation of theAgreement, three scenarios are analyzed: the business-as-usual (as a developing country), the absolute emission reduction (as a developed country), and the exit (exiting the Agreement). Emission pathways and reduction amounts for each scenario are estimatedaccordingly. An input-output model is used based on 2018 tables for 45 sectors. Five policy options are analyzed regarding how to distribute the emission reduction burden among sectors: all sectors according to their shares in 2018 emissions (option 1); the top 9 sectors whose emission coefficients are above average (option 2); the top 6 sectors whose emission multipliers are high (option 3); the top 11 sectors whose emission multipliers are above average (option 4); the top 12 sectors which are the top 11 in option 4 plus the construction sector (option 5). Reducing emissions significantly reduces sectoral output in all scenarios and policy options. However, the impact of the business-as-usual is less than absolute emission reduction. Targeting only a few sectors in emission reduction results in a lower impact. If policy optionsare sorted by their total cost from smallest to largest, the order would be 3, 2, 4, 5, and 1.Keywords : Emisyon azaltımı, Paris Anlaşması, Ekonomik etki analizi, Girdi-çıktı modeli