- Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sağlık Bilimleri Dergisi
- Vol: 9 Issue: 1
- Forecasting for Healthcare Expenditure of Turkey Covering the Years of 2018-2050
Forecasting for Healthcare Expenditure of Turkey Covering the Years of 2018-2050
Authors : Abdulkadir Atalan
Pages : 8-16
Doi:10.37989/gumussagbil.538111
View : 15 | Download : 6
Publication Date : 2020-04-02
Article Type : Research
Abstract :The aim of this study was to measure health expenditure (HE) estimates for Turkey for the next 32 years. Considering HE data of Turkey for the period from 1975 to 2017 over 42 years, more than one equation was obtained for estimation. Equations were formed in trendline analysis in order to estimate the HE values in the long term by considering the reliability levels of the data. The data were used for HE of Turkey as a share of gross domestic product (GDP), which ranges from less than 1.49 % to 5.53 % in this research. Estimation of HE of Turkey for the next 32 years (the period from 2018 to 2050) according to the formulas developed were considered in this research. For the years to come, the maximum ratio of HE of 8.56 % was gained by the exponential trend for the year 2050. In the opposite direction, the minimum HE ratio was expected to be 2.17 % of the 5 th order equation for 2018. 7.45 % covers the years after 2030 due to the exponential distribution for the average the values of HE. While the average value obtained by the 6 th order equation, which has the highest reliability rate is 3.45 %, the difference between the maximum and the minimum was calculated as 3.4479%. For the period of 2018-2050, an average of HE rates of Turkey was 5.07 %, whereas the maximum value was calculated to be 6.68 %. The minimum value of HE was estimated at 3.58 % of GDP. As a result, Turkey needs to upgrade the amount of budget allocated for healthcare on the purpose of improving healthcare infrastructure.Keywords : Healthcare Expenditure, Trendline Analysis, Estimations, Equations