- Balıkesir Sağlık Bilimleri Dergisi
- Cilt: 12 Sayı: 3
- The Ability of Early Warning Scores to Predict Mortality in Covid 19 Pneumonia
The Ability of Early Warning Scores to Predict Mortality in Covid 19 Pneumonia
Authors : Yunus Emre Arik, Hatice Topcu
Pages : 571-578
Doi:10.53424/balikesirsbd.1246611
View : 30 | Download : 31
Publication Date : 2023-09-28
Article Type : Research
Abstract :Objective: Early recognition of critical patients is crucial in emergency departments. Many scoring systems are used for it. This study aim determining the prognostic values of these scoring systems for Covid 19 patients. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study was performed between March 2020 -May 2020. 212 patient who have Covid 19 pneumonia were enrolled. National Early Warning Score (NEWS), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) scores were calculated according to patients’ admission data. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine the diagnostic values of scores and the optimum cut-off values were determined by Youden Index. Results: Twenty-three (10.84%) of 212 patients died and 34 (16%) were admitted to ICU. The AUC values of MEWS, NEWS, and qSOFA for predicting mortality in < 65 years old were 0.852 (95% confidence interval 0.708-0.997), 0.882 (0.741-1.000) and 0.879 (0.768-0.990) and ≥65 years old 0.854(0.720-0.987), 0.931(0.853-1.000), 0.776(0.609-0.944) respectively. For ICU admission AUC values of MEWS, NEWS and qSOFA in <65 years old followed as; 0.882(0.783-0.981), 0.914(0.817-1.000), 0.868(0.764-0.973) and 0.845(0.725-0.965), 0.926(0.854-0.998), 0.815(0.676-0.954) in ≥ 65 years old. MEWS and qSOFA optimal cut-off values for mortality were ≥2 with 90.0% sensitivity 74.7% specificity and ≥1 with 90.9% sensitivity 78.1% specificity for <65 years, NEWS optimal cut-off is ≥6 with 91.7% sensitivity and 76.7% specificity for ≥ 65 years. Conclusion: These scores have good predictive value for mortality and ICU admission, but NEWS is better especially in ≥ 65 years old patient with Covid 19 pneumonia.Keywords : tahmin, covid 19, pnömoni, ölüm oranı