- Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
- Vol: 25 Issue: 6
- Probabilistic day-ahead system marginal price forecasting with ANN for the Turkish electricity marke...
Probabilistic day-ahead system marginal price forecasting with ANN for the Turkish electricity market
Authors : Erdem Özgüner, Osman Bülent Tör, Ali Nezih Güven
Pages : 4923-4935
View : 13 | Download : 2
Publication Date : 9999-12-31
Article Type : Makaleler
Abstract :This study presents a system day-ahead hourly market clearing price forecasting tool for the day-ahead (DA) market and a system DA hourly marginal price forecasting tool for the real-time market of the Turkish electric market (TEM). These forecasting tools are developed based on artificial neural networks (ANNs). A series of historical price data of the TEM are utilized to model and optimize the ANN structure and to develop the ANN-based price forecasting tool. The methodology used to select the optimum ANN architecture provides the minimum daily mean absolute percentage error for both day-ahead market prices in the TEM. Performances of the proposed ANN model and the multiple linear regression model in forecasting the day-ahead hourly market clearing price are compared. The proposed ANN model is modified using volatility analysis and the Bienayme-Chebyshev inequality in order to forecast system marginal prices probabilistically within a lower and an upper boundary.Keywords : Artificial neural networks, electricity market, price forecasting, system marginal price