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- CLIOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF SECTORAL EMPLOYMENT-FREE GROWTH IN TURKEY BEFORE 1980: FOURIER EVIDENCE
CLIOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF SECTORAL EMPLOYMENT-FREE GROWTH IN TURKEY BEFORE 1980: FOURIER EVIDENCE
Authors : Müşerref Arik, Hasan Azazi, Melike Buse Akcan
Pages : 161-175
Doi:10.35408/comuybd.1379818
View : 41 | Download : 34
Publication Date : 2024-01-30
Article Type : Research
Abstract :In studies that examine the relationship between variables in a certain period, although they have historical importance, and aim to provide information about the period, analyzing the relevant variables using econometric analysis methods is called cliometric analysis. The aim of the study is to examine the period that started after the proclamation of the Republic until the 1980 coup, which can be described as the crisis period. As a result, the republican period between 1923 and 1980 will be subjected to cliometric analysis in this study. The variables to be investigated in the study were identified as sectoral employment data and GDP data used to quantify economic growth, taking agriculture, industry, and service sectors into consideration. By examining the relationship between variables, the existence of employmentless growth will be tested on a sectoral basis, and the data sets will be examined in two separate analyses. The tests to be applied in the study will be carried out by applying both traditional analysis methods and new generation analysis methods. The first of the tests to be applied in the study can be expressed as the traditional Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test and the Fourier Granger Causality test to determine the causality relationship between variables. The use of the Fourier analysis method, which is among the new generation analysis methods, in the applied tests shows that the study will contribute to the literature. When the Augmented Dickey Fuller test results are examined, it is seen that the independent variables consisting of agriculture, industry and service sectors and the dependent variable consisting of the growth rate each contain unit roots at their level values but are purified from the unit root as a result of taking the first order difference. The results obtained as a result of the Fourier Granger causality test of the study are it shows that growth without employment was valid in the service sector between 1923 and 1980, while growth without employment was invalid in the agricultural and industrial sectors.Keywords : İstihdamsız Büyüme, Kliometrik Analiz, Fourier, Türkiye