- Trafik ve Ulaşım Araştırmaları Dergisi
- Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2
- Establishment of Confidence Intervals for Average Vehicle Speeds
Establishment of Confidence Intervals for Average Vehicle Speeds
Authors : Mirhamid Baghirov
Pages : 131-142
View : 73 | Download : 88
Publication Date : 2023-10-31
Article Type : Other
Abstract :Accurate forecasting of the average speed of vehicles is important for early detection of traffic congestion and density, as well as for the correct reporting of the green wave mode. For this purpose, to evaluate the forecasting of traffic indicators using the artificial intelligence method a confidence interval was established on the example of the city of Baku, the capital of the Republic of Azerbaijan. However, this confidence interval includes forecasts for the next few days based on observations of existing roads, not of planned and reconstructed roads. During the preparation of the report, the first 21 days of April 2019 were selected and based on the obtained data, the objective numerical assessment of the quantitative anticipation for the number of hours in a day, standardized deviation\'s objective statistical approximation, the quantile of the Student’s distribution, the lower limit, the upper limit and the values of the difference between them were determined, as well as the degree of freedom and the computed confidence interval. As a result of the reports, one confidence interval is given for each hour of the day, in which the indicator falls into this interval with 95% of the following days. It is also possible to determine the recommended speed limit, which is the most important part of the green wave mode, with the help of the mentioned prediction.Keywords : : güven aralığı, araçların ortalama hızı, trafik akışı, yeşil dalga, önerilen hareket hızı, karayolu trafik yönetimi